STUDI KOMPARATIF KETERKAITAN KEBIJAKAN MAKROPRUDENSIAL TERHADAP EMISI KARBONDIOKSIDA DI NEGARA MAJU DAN BERKEMBANG
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24843/BSE.2026.v31.i01.p08Keywords:
Emisi CO2, Kebijakan makroprudensial, Negara maju dan Berkembang, Regresi Data Panel, Stabilitas Keuangan, CO2 Emissions, Developed and Developing, Countries, Financial Stability, Macroprudential Policy, Panel Data RegressionAbstract
Penelitian ini menganalisis dampak kebijakan makroprudensial terhadap emisi CO2 di negara maju dan berkembang periode 2010–2023 menggunakan estimasi Panel Least Square. Temuan utama mengungkap bahwa emisi CO₂ secara signifikan mengganggu stabilitas keuangan melalui risiko transisi dan iklim fisik. Negara maju berhasil mencapai decoupling pertumbuhan ekonomi dari emisi sehingga meminimalkan eksposur aset berisiko dan meningkatkan ketahanan keuangan sementara negara berkembang mengalami coupling yang memperbesar kerentanan sistemik. Secara khusus, Capital Adequacy Ratio efektif menekan emisi di negara maju, tetapi instrumen seperti Loan-to-Value dan Debt-to-Income kurang mendukung transisi rendah karbon di negara berkembang. Implikasi kebijakannya mencakup integrasi bobot risiko aset berbasis fosil bagi negara maju guna mempercepat decoupling, serta inovasi kredit adaptif dan koordinasi kebijakan untuk transisi hijau inklusif di negara berkembang. Penggabungan risiko iklim dalam regulasi makroprudensial pada akhirnya melindungi stabilitas keuangan sekaligus mencegah kerugian ekonomi global triliunan dolar akibat perubahan iklim.
This study analyzes the impact of macroprudential policies on CO₂ emissions in advanced and developing economies over 2010–2023 using Panel Least Square estimation. Key findings indicate that CO2 emissions significantly disrupt financial stability through transition and physical climate risks. Advanced economies achieve decoupling of economic growth from emissions thus minimizing risky asset exposure and enhancing financial resilience while developing economies experience persistent coupling that amplifies systemic vulnerabilities. Specifically, the Capital Adequacy Ratio effectively curbs emissions in advanced economies, whereas instruments like Loan-to-Value and Debt-to-Income ratios inadequately support low-carbon transitions in developing ones. Policy implications include integrating fossil-based asset risk weights in advanced economies to accelerate decoupling, alongside adaptive credit innovations and policy coordination for inclusive green transitions in developing economies. Ultimately, embedding climate risks in macroprudential regulation safeguards financial stability while averting trillions in global economic losses from climate change.
References
Alessi, L., Di Girolamo, E. F., Pagano, A., & Giudici, M. P. (2024). Accounting for climate transition risk in banks’ capital requirements. Journal of Financial Stability, 73, 101269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101269
Alita, D., Putra, A. D., & Darwis, D. (2021). Analysis of classic assumption test and multiple linear regression coefficient test for employee structural office recommendation. IJCCS (Indonesian Journal of Computing and Cybernetics Systems), 15(3), 295-306. https://scholar.archive.org/work/uiqcuz7elrffnccscrmbk2pqr4/access/wayback/https://jurnal.ugm.ac.id/ijccs/article/download/65586/31843
Alquézar, R., & Sanfeliu, A. (2011). A test for the homoscedasticity of the residuals in fuzzy rule-based forecasters. Applied Intelligence, 34(3), 386-393.
Ampudia, M., Lo Duca, M., Farkas, M. G., Perez-Quiros, G., Pirovano, M., Rünstler, G., & Tereanu, E. (2021). On the effectiveness of macroprudential policy (No. 2559). ECB Working Paper. https://hdl.handle.net/10419/237698
BIS. (2023) Macroprudential policies for No 18 addressing climate-related financial risks: challenges and trade-offs. Fsi brief, Apr 2023. https://www.bis.org/fsi/fsibriefs18.pdf
BIS. (2025). Advancing Climate Action through Enhanced Data and Macroprudential Policy. https://www.bis.org/ifc/publ/ifcb63_24.pdf
Bolton, P., & Kacperczyk, M. (2023). Global pricing of carbon‐transition risk. The Journal of Finance, 78(6), 3677-3754. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.13272
Chenet, H., Monnin, P., & Ryan-Collins, J. (2021). Finance, climate-change and radical uncertainty: Towards a precautionary approach to financial policy. Ecological Economics, 183, 106957. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.106957
Cong, Y., Wang, Y., & Wu, Y. (2023). Impact of house prices on household carbon emissions. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 11, 1149089. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1149089
Creswell, J. W. (2022). A concise introduction to mixed methods research. SAGE publications. https://books.google.com/books?hl=id&lr=&id=2s0IEAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PT11&dq=Creswell,+J.+W.+(2022).+A+concise+introduction+to+mixed+methods+research.+SAGE+publications.&ots=9032WQFVK9&sig=Qn-SvM9i9ku_IoSxkoDYKzhCgx8
D’Orazio, P., & Dirks, M. W. (2022). Exploring the effects of climate-related financial policies on carbon emissions in G20 countries: a panel quantile regression approach. Empirical Economics, 66(4), 1641–1668. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11356-021-15655-y
Dykas, P., Tokarski, T., & Wisła, R. (2023). The Solow model of economic growth: Application to contemporary macroeconomic issues (p. 265). Taylor & Francis. https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.12657/76881/9781000774818.pdf?sequence=1
Emambakhsh, T. et al. (2024). Designing a macroprudential capital buffer for climate-related financial risks. ECB Working Paper, No. 2943. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/299586/1/189231150X.pdf
Farboodi, M., & Veldkamp, L. (2021). A growth model of the data economy (No. w28427). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://conference.nber.org/confer/2021/YSAIf21/Data2021.pdf
Fasesin, K., Oladinni, A., Emezirinwune, M. U., Oba-Sulaiman, Z., & Abdulsalam, K. A. (2024). Renewable energy in developing countries: Challenges, opportunities, and policy recommendations for innovative funding. Adeleke University Journal of Science, 3(1), 120-129. https://aujs.adelekeuniversity.edu.ng/index.php/aujs/article/view/105
Fernandes, C. I., Veiga, P. M., Ferreira, J. J., & Hughes, M. (2021). Green growth versus economic growth: do sustainable technology transfer and innovations lead to an imperfect choice?. Business strategy and the environment, 30(4), 2021-2037. https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.2730
Fernando, R., Liu, W., & McKibbin, W. J. (2021). Global economic impacts of climate shocks, climate policy and changes in climate risk assessment. Climate Policy and Changes in Climate Risk Assessment (May 2021). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP16154. https://cepr.org/publications/dp16154
Galán, J. E. (2024). The benefits are at the tail: uncovering the impact of macroprudential policy on growth-at-risk. Journal of Financial Stability, 74, 100831. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2024.100831
Gatt, W. (2024). Loan‐to‐value limits as a macroprudential policy tool: Developments in theory and practice. Journal of Economic Surveys, 38(1), 232-267. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12536
Giesselmann, M., & Schmidt C, A. W. (2022). Interactions in fixed effects regression models. Sociological Methods & Research, 51(3), 1100-1127. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124120914937
González, J.F., Padilla Rosa, E., & Raymond, J. L. (2024). World economies’ progress in decoupling from CO2 emissions. Scientific Reports, 14(1), 20480. https://www.google.com/search?q=https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-71040-z
Grünewald, S. (2021). Climate change as a systemic risk in finance: Are macroprudential authorities up to the task?. In Sustainable Finance in Europe: Corporate Governance, Financial Stability and Financial Markets (pp. 227-257). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-70350-9_9
Grunewald, S. N. (2023). Macroprudential policies and climate risks. University of Genoa EUSFiL Law Research Working Paper Series, (19). https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4481358
Gujarati, D. N. & Porter, D. C (2021). Basic Econometric. Douglas reine. https://www.academia.edu/download/58118829/ESSENTIALS_OF_-_homeworkmarket.com__PDFDrive.com_.pdf
Ha, L. T. (2025). Deploying green macroprudential policies to promote environmental health: new findings from panel VAR for international database. Environment Systems and Decisions, 45(3), 39. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-024-09958-z
Hakami, M., & Shaheen, R. (2025). Investigating factors influencing CO2 emissions in selected G20 countries. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 12(2), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2025.02.001 .
Jiang, C., & Ma, X. (2019). The impact of financial development on carbon emissions: a global perspective. Sustainability, 11(19), 5241. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11195241
Jie, W., & Rabnawaz, K. (2024). Renewable energy and CO2 emissions in developing and developed nations: a panel estimate approach. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 12, 1405001. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2024.1405001
Kaldorf, M., & Rottner, M. (2024). Climate Minsky moments and endogenous financial crises (No. 26/2024). Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4899092
Kim, J. (2025). When Do Capital Buffers Work? Shock-Dependent Effectiveness of Countercyclical Macroprudential Policy. Shock-Dependent Effectiveness of Countercyclical Macroprudential Policy. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5546288
Krueger, P., Sautner, Z., & Starks, L. T. (2020). The importance of climate risks for institutional investors. The Review of financial studies, 33(3), 1067-1111. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz137
Leal, P. H., & Marques, A. C. (2022). The evolution of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis assessment: A literature review under a critical analysis perspective. Heliyon, 8(11). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e11508
Luo, H. (2024). Effects of macroprudential policies on ecological footprint. Scientific Reports, 14, 58015. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-65935-4
Luo, H., & Kamarudin, F. (2023). Macroprudential policies and CO2 emissions: A comparative analysis of G7 and BRIC countries. PLOS ONE, 18(1), Article e0279883. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0279883
Mahmood, H., Furqan, M., Hassan, M. S., & Rej, S. (2023). The environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in China: A review. Sustainability, 15(7), 6110. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15076110
Mohsin, M., Naseem, S., Sarfraz, M., & Azam, T. (2022). Assessing the effects of fuel energy consumption, foreign direct investment and GDP on CO2 emission: New data science evidence from Europe & Central Asia. Fuel, 314, 123098. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2021.123098
NGFS. (2020). Guide for Supervisors: Integrating climate-related and environmental risks into prudential supervision. May 2020. https://www.ngfs.net/system/files/import/ngfs/medias/documents/ngfs_guide_for_supervisors.pdf
Ozili, P. K. (2025). Carbon emissions, financial stability and bank profitability in non-crisis years. Development and Sustainability in Economics and Finance, 100079. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsef.2024.100079
Pradhan, K. C., Mishra, B., & Mohapatra, S. M. (2024). Investigating the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions: a comparative analysis of South Asian nations and G-7 countries. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, 26(10), 3349-3367. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-024-02941-0
Prameswari, A. A., & Rahyuda, H. (2024). Pengaruh likuiditas dan risiko kredit terhadap profitabilitas dengan kecukupan modal sebagai variabel mediating. Buletin Studi Ekonomi, 50-61. https://doi.org/10.24843/BSE.2024.v29.i01.p05
Rahko, J., & Alola, A. A. (2024). The effects of climate change technology spillovers on carbon emissions across European countries. Journal of Environmental Management, 370, 122972. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.
Roncoroni, A., Battiston, S., Escobar-Farfán, L. O., & Martinez-Jaramillo, S. (2021). Climate risk and financial stability in the network of banks and investment funds. Journal of Financial Stability, 54, 100870. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2021.100870
Salari, M., Javid, R. J., & Noghanibehambari, H. (2021). The nexus between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth in the US. Economic Analysis and Policy, 69, 182-194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2020.11.005
Schneider, N. (2022). Internalizing environmental externalities and the Coase theorem. World Journal of Applied Economics, 8(2), 93-100. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7802-1133
Semieniuk, G., et al. (2020). Low‐carbon transition risks for finance. Journal of Economic Surveys,35(5),1370-1398. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12416
Song, X., Zhang, X., Ding, X., Guo, L., & Huang, J. (2023). Building and carbon emissions: Evidence from real estate purchase restriction policy. Urban Climate, 52, 101726. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101726
Spineli, L. M., & Pandis, N. (2020). Fixed-effect versus random-effects model in meta-regression analysis. American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics, 158(5), 770-772. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajodo.2020.07.014
Svartzman, R., Bolton, P., Despres, M., Pereira Da Silva, L. A., & Samama, F. (2021). Central banks, financial stability and policy coordination in the age of climate uncertainty: A three-layered analytical and operational framework. Climate Policy, 21(4), 563-580. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1852588
Trott, M. (2024). Statement by Veda Poon, Executive Director for the United Kingdom, Matt Trott, Alternative Executive Director, and Will Obeney, Advisor to Executive Director July 1, 2024. https://www.elibrary.imf.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/002/2024/203/article-A004-en.pdf
Wang, Y., Cui, L., & Zhou, J. (2025). The impact of green finance and digital economy on regional carbon emission reduction. International Review of Economics & Finance, 97, 103748. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2024.103748
Wu, G., Liu, X., & Cai, Y. (2024). The impact of green finance on carbon emission efficiency. Heliyon, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e23508
Yang, X., Yang, Z., & Jia, Z. (2021). Effects of technology spillover on CO2 emissions in China: a threshold analysis. Energy Reports, 7, 2233-2244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2021.04.045
Zhao, T., & Liu, Z. (2022). Drivers of CO2 emissions: A debt perspective. International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(3), 1847. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031847
