ANALISIS INTERDEPENDENSI NILAI IMPOR MIGAS, CADANGAN DEVISA, KURS, INFLASI DAN BI RATE DI INDONESIA

Abstract

Penelitian ini menganalisis interdependensi antara nilai impor migas, cadangan devisa, kurs, inflasi, dan BI Rate di Indonesia menggunakan pendekatan Vector Autoregressive (VAR). Data bulanan Januari 2009 hingga Desember 2024 dianalisis melalui uji kausalitas Granger dan estimasi VECM. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Kurs dan BI Rate berpengaruh satu arah terhadap impor migas, cadangan devisa berpengaruh satu arah terhadap BI Rate, serta terdapat hubungan dua arah antara kurs dan BI Rate. Adapun hubungan antara impor migas dengan cadangan devisa dan inflasi tidak terbukti signifikan secara statistik. Dalam jangka panjang, inflasi berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap impor migas secara statistik. Simpulan penelitian menegaskan bahwa pengelolaan impor migas lebih efektif melalui kebijakan struktural sektor energi. Implikasi kebijakan menekankan pentingnya koordinasi kebijakan fiskal-moneter serta penguatan instrumen stabilisasi cadangan devisa dan kebijakan harga energi yang adaptif terhadap guncangan eksternal.

This study analyzes the interdependencies between oil and gas imports, foreign exchange reserves, exchange rates, inflation, and the BI Rate in Indonesia using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach. Monthly data from January 2009 to December 2024 are analyzed through Granger causality tests and VECM estimation. The results show that the exchange rate and BI Rate have a one-way influence on oil and gas imports, foreign exchange reserves have a one-way influence on the BI Rate, and there is a two-way relationship between the exchange rate and the BI Rate. Meanwhile, relationships between oil and gas imports with foreign exchange reserves and inflation are not statistically significant. In the long run, inflation has statistically significant positive effect on oil and gas imports. The study concludes that managing oil and gas imports is more effectively achieved through structural policies in the energy sector. Policy implications emphasize the importance of fiscal-monetary policy coordination and strengthening foreign exchange reserve stabilization instruments and adaptive energy pricing policies.