RESPONS DINAMIS SEKTOR KEUANGAN DAN SEKTOR RIIL INDONESIA TERHADAP GUNCANGAN KETIDAKPASTIAN KEBIJAKAN PERDAGANGAN AS-TIONGKOK

Abstract

Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi oleh transisi menuju slowbalisation akibat ketidakpastian kebijakan perdagangan Amerika Serikat (AS) dan Tiongkok. Studi ini bertujuan menganalisis respons dan kontribusi guncangan tersebut terhadap sektor keuangan (IHSG, Nilai Tukar) dan sektor riil (FDI, Ekspor) Indonesia menggunakan Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) periode Januari 2004 hingga Desember 2024. Hasil penelitian mengungkapkan respons asimetris: guncangan Tiongkok memberikan keuntungan substitusi (trade diversion) yang positif bagi ekspor dan memicu apresiasi Rupiah, namun menekan IHSG lebih persisten serta memicu penundaan investasi asing (wait-and-see). Sebaliknya, guncangan AS menekan ekspor dalam jangka panjang meski dampaknya pada pasar keuangan bersifat sementara. Dekomposisi varians menegaskan bahwa fluktuasi ekspor didominasi guncangan AS, sedangkan volatilitas FDI, Rupiah, dan IHSG jauh lebih sensitif terhadap sentimen regional Tiongkok. Disimpulkan bahwa ketidakpastian AS mendisrupsi jalur permintaan global, sementara ketidakpastian Tiongkok mendominasi risiko investasi dan pasar keuangan domestik. Implikasinya, pemerintah perlu memperkuat stabilisasi pasar keuangan guna memitigasi risiko aliran modal portofolio, sembari mengoptimalkan peluang pengalihan perdagangan dari pergeseran rantai pasok global.

This study is motivated by the transition to slowbalisation due to uncertainty surrounding the trade policies of the United States (US) and China. This study aims to analyze the response and contribution of these shocks to Indonesia's financial sector (IHSG, Exchange Rate) and real sector (FDI, Exports) using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) for the period January 2004 to December 2024. The results reveal an asymmetric response: Chinese shocks provide positive trade diversion benefits for exports and trigger Rupiah appreciation, but exert a more persistent downward pressure on the IHSG and trigger a wait-and-see attitude among foreign investors. Conversely, US shocks exert a downward pressure on exports in the long term, although their impact on financial markets is temporary. Variance decomposition confirms that export fluctuations are dominated by US shocks, while FDI, Rupiah, and IHSG volatility are far more sensitive to regional sentiment in China. It is concluded that US uncertainty disrupts global demand channels, while Chinese uncertainty dominates domestic investment and financial market risks. As a result, the government needs to strengthen financial market stabilization to mitigate the risk of portfolio capital flows, while optimizing opportunities for trade diversion from shifts in the global supply chain.