ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL SENTIMENT AND TRADE POLICY SHOCKS ININDONESIA’S STOCK MARKET

Abstract

The capital market plays an important role in supporting the economy through its intermediation function and serves as an indicator of investor confidence in economic conditions. In Indonesia, JCI reflects capital market performance, which is influenced not only by domestic factors but also by global dynamics, such as international market volatility, the performance of the United States stock market, global trade sentiment, and international trade policies. This study aims to analyze the effects of the VIX index, global gold prices, the DJIA, the S&P 500, Google Trends data related to trade war issues, and United States import tariff policy on JCI. The study employs a quantitative approach based on secondary data using time-series regression during the period from January 2021 to December 2025. The data were obtained from various official sources. The results indicate that JCI movements are significantly influenced by global market volatility, the performance of the United States stock market, digital-based global trade sentiment, and changes in United States import tariff policy, while global gold prices do not have a significant effect. These findings indicate the transmission of global dynamics to the Indonesian stock market through international financial market integration and investor sentiment channels.

Pasar modal memainkan peran penting dalam mendukung perekonomian melalui fungsi intermediasi serta menjadi indikator kepercayaan investor terhadap kondisi ekonomi. Di Indonesia, IHSG mencerminkan kinerja pasar modal yang tidak hanya dipengaruhi faktor domestik, tetapi juga dinamika global, seperti volatilitas pasar internasional, kinerja pasar saham Amerika Serikat, sentimen perdagangan global, dan kebijakan perdagangan internasional. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh indeks VIX, harga emas global, DJIA, S&P 500, data Google Trends terkait isu perang dagang, serta kebijakan tarif impor Amerika Serikat terhadap IHSG. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif berbasis data sekunder dengan metode regresi time series selama Januari 2021 hingga Desember 2025. Data diperoleh dari berbagai sumber resmi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pergerakan IHSG secara signifikan dipengaruhi oleh volatilitas pasar global, kinerja pasar saham Amerika Serikat, sentimen perdagangan global berbasis digital, serta perubahan kebijakan tarif impor Amerika Serikat, sedangkan harga emas global tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Temuan ini menunjukkan adanya transmisi dinamika global ke pasar saham Indonesia melalui integrasi pasar keuangan internasional dan saluran sentimen investor.