Iran-US War and ASEAN Economic Stability: Structural Shock, Energy Interdependence, and the Limits of ASEAN Centrality
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24843/jnp.v4i2.3716Keywords:
ASEAN, Strait of Hormuz, Iran-US war, complex interdependence, energy security, ASEAN CentralityAbstract
The 2026 Iran–United States War and disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz show that ASEAN’s economic vulnerability depends not only on energy prices but also on simultaneous shifts in physical supply, marine insurance, trade finance, and sanctions regulations, while each country’s capacity to adjust varies. This article employs Keohane and Nye’s concept of complex interdependence to understand sensitivity and vulnerability in terms of shock costs and adjustment costs, as well as Farrell and Newman’s concept of weaponized interdependence to explain the influence of financial networks and compliance mechanisms beyond ASEAN’s control. Through qualitative process tracing, document analysis, and cross-country comparisons, the study traces the chain from the Hormuz disruption to logistical pressures, fiscal responses, commercial decisions, and regional coordination. The results show that while ASEAN mitigated some initial pressures, adjustment costs remained high because of dependence on Middle Eastern oil, limited substitution options, reserve and fiscal gaps, uncertainty over sanctions, and regional emergency regulations that remain voluntary. ASEAN Centrality helps with coordination, but the bloc lacks the material capacity to share risks and supply equitably.
Downloads
References
Ahmed, T., Mekhilef, S., Shah, R., Mithulananthan, N., Seyedmahmoudian, M., & Horan, B. (2017). ASEAN power grid: A secure transmission infrastructure for clean and sustainable energy for South-East Asia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 67, 1420–1435. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.09.055
Aleluia, J., Tharakan, P., Chikkatur, A. P., Shrimali, G., & Chen, X. (2022). Accelerating a clean energy transition in Southeast Asia: Role of governments and public policy. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 159, 112226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112226
ASEAN Centre for Energy. (2025, October 15). ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2026–2030. https://wordpress.aseanenergy.org/publications/asean-plan-of-action-for-energy-cooperation-apaec-2026-2030/
ASEAN Centre for Energy. (2026a). ASEAN energy security insights: Implications of the Middle East situation. https://www.aseanenergy.org/showcase/middle-east-and-asean-energy-security
ASEAN Centre for Energy. (2026b, March 4). ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ statement on the situation in the Middle East. https://www.aseanenergy.org/articles/asean-foreign-ministers-statement-on-the-situation-in-the-middle-east
ASEAN Centre for Energy. (2026c). ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement (APSA) Secretariat. https://aseanenergy.org/secretariat/asean-petroleum-security-agreement-apsa-secretariat
ASEAN Centre for Energy. (2026d, March 13). Joint statement of the ASEAN Economic Ministers on strengthening ASEAN’s economic resilience in response to recent global economic and geopolitical developments. https://www.aseanenergy.org/articles/joint-statement-of-the-asean-economic-ministers-on-strengthening-aseans-economic-resilience-in-response-to-recent-global-economic-and-geopolitical-developments
ASEAN Centre for Energy. (2026e, April 28). Joint statement of the Special ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM) on the latest situation in the Middle East. https://www.aseanenergy.org/articles/joint-statement-of-the-special-asean-ministers-on-energy-meeting-amem-on-the-latest-situation-in-the-middle-east
Beach, D., & Pedersen, R. B. (2019). Process-tracing methods: Foundations and guidelines (2nd ed.). University of Michigan Press. https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.10072208
Caballero-Anthony, M. (2014). Understanding ASEAN's centrality: Bases and prospects in an evolving regional architecture. The Pacific Review, 27(4), 563–584. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2014.924227
Creswell, J. W., & Poth, C. N. (2018). Qualitative inquiry and research design: Choosing among five approaches (4th ed.). SAGE.
Dai, P.-F., Xiong, X., Zhang, J., & Zhou, W.-X. (2022). The role of global economic policy uncertainty in predicting crude oil futures volatility: Evidence from a two-factor GARCH-MIDAS model. Resources Policy, 78, 102849. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102849
Deléchat, C. C., Rawat, U., & Stepanyan, A. (2024). Navigating external shocks in Southeast Asia's emerging markets: Key lessons and challenges in applying the IMF's Integrated Policy Framework (Departmental Paper No. 2024/007). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400285790.087
Do, T. N. (2024). Insider perspectives on Southeast Asia's clean energy transition. Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, 11(2), e390. https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.390
Drezner, D. W. (2015). Targeted sanctions in a world of global finance. International Interactions, 41(4), 755–764. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2015.1041297
Farrell, H., & Newman, A. L. (2019). Weaponized interdependence: How global economic networks shape state coercion. International Security, 44(1), 42–79. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00351
Gozgor, G., Chang, Y., & Bilgin, M. H. (2017). Crude oil price shocks and macroeconomic performance in the ASEAN economies. In M. H. Bilgin, H. Danis, E. Demir, & U. Can (Eds.), Financial environment and business development (Vol. 4, pp. 253–265). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-39919-5_20
International Energy Agency. (2026a). Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2026. https://www.iea.org/reports/southeast-asia-energy-outlook-2026
International Energy Agency. (2026b, June 16). Strait of Hormuz crisis reinforces need for Southeast Asia to tackle major energy vulnerabilities. https://www.iea.org/news/strait-of-hormuz-crisis-reinforces-need-for-southeast-asia-to-tackle-major-energy-vulnerabilities
Jones, D. M., & Jenne, N. (2016). Weak states' regionalism: ASEAN and the limits of security cooperation in Pacific Asia. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 16(2), 209–240. https://doi.org/10.1093/irap/lcv015
Kanchana, K., & Unesaki, H. (2014). ASEAN energy security: An indicator-based assessment. Energy Procedia, 56, 163–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2014.07.145
Kanchana, K., McLellan, B. C., & Unesaki, H. (2016). Energy dependence with an Asian twist? Examining international energy relations in Southeast Asia. Energy Research & Social Science, 21, 123–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2016.07.003
Keohane, R. O., & Nye, J. S. (1977). Power and interdependence: World politics in transition. Little, Brown.
Office of Foreign Assets Control. (2026a, July 7). Issuance of amended Iran-related General License X1. U.S. Department of the Treasury. https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260707
Office of Foreign Assets Control. (2026b, June 22). Issuance of Iran-related General License X. U.S. Department of the Treasury. https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260622_33
Popova, L., & Rasoulinezhad, E. (2016). Have sanctions modified Iran's trade policy? An evidence of Asianization and de-Europeanization through the gravity model. Economies, 4(4), 24. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies4040024
Reuters. (2026, July 9). Oil tanker traffic through Hormuz at near standstill as attacks strain Iran truce. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/oil-tanker-traffic-through-hormuz-near-standstill-attacks-strain-iran-truce-2026-07-09/
Taufani, A., Hakim, D. B., & Widyastutik. (2022). The impact of oil price shocks on macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from four ASEAN countries. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 14(2), 271–286. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss2.art10
Tongsopit, S., Kittner, N., Chang, Y., Aksornkij, A., & Wangjiraniran, W. (2016). Energy security in ASEAN: A quantitative approach for sustainable energy policy. Energy Policy, 90, 60–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.11.019
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2026a, April 28). Hormuz disruption shows why early-warning data matters. https://unctad.org/news/hormuz-disruption-shows-why-early-warning-data-matters
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2026b, April 1). Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Growth and financial implications (UNCTAD/OSG/INF/2026/2). https://unctad.org/publication/strait-hormuz-disruptions-growth-and-financial-implications
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2026c, March 10). Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Implications for global trade and development (UNCTAD/OSG/TT/INF/2026/1). https://unctad.org/publication/strait-hormuz-disruptions-implications-global-trade-and-development
Yoshimatsu, H. (2023). Meanings, norms, and social constitution: Revisiting ASEAN centrality in East Asian regionalism. Japanese Journal of Political Science, 24(4), 409–423. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1468109923000257
Zhong, S., Yang, L., Papageorgiou, D. J., Su, B., Ng, T. S., & Abubakar, S. (2025). Accelerating ASEAN's energy transition in the power sector through cross-border transmission and a net-zero 2050 view. iScience, 28(1), 111547. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2024.111547
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Virza Utama Alamsyah, Zaenal Muttaqien (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The views and concepts presented in articles published by Jurnal Nawala Politika belong exclusively to their respective authors and do not inherently represent the stance of the editors or the editorial board.
